Where Home Prices Rose & Fell in 2026: And Where We Stand in Fernandina Beach.

Scroll through your YouTube or X feed long enough, and you’ll no doubt see at least one doommer warning of an imminent housing crash. Some of them sound so convincing, too. 

But the data on today’s housing market shows something completely different. 

Home prices climbed 2.1% across the country over the past year. I’m looking at where prices are rising the fastest, at the state and city levels, and where they’re falling. And the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) put out some maps that show exactly what’s going on.

You’ll see those below, along with state and city rankings on home price growth and what we’re seeing here in [Your Market], so you can make an informed decision on whether to buy or sell this year. 

What's Happening to Home Prices Right Now

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices are up 2.1% nationally compared to a year ago.

This is a little faster than the pace at the start of the year.

Prices also rose 0.3% since the first few months of this year. This slower pace suggests the market is settling into a steadier rhythm.

Home prices have gone up every single quarter since 2012. Even with higher mortgage rates and cost pressures over the past few years, prices have kept climbing in most of the country.

States Where Home Prices Are Rising (or Falling) the Fastest

Some states are seeing much bigger gains than others. Here are the ten states with the strongest price growth over the past year:

1. Alaska: up 8.3%
2. Vermont: up 7.3%
3. Hawaii: up 5.8%
4. Illinois: up 5.6%
5. West Virginia: up 5.6%
6. Wisconsin: up 4.8%
7. North Dakota: up 4.8%
8. Connecticut: up 4.7%
9. Rhode Island: up 4.7%
10. New Jersey: up 4.6%

A lot of these states are in the Midwest or Northeast, where there aren't enough homes for sale to keep up with buyer demand, and that keeps prices climbing.

Home prices fell in four states over the same year:

1. New Mexico: down 1.2%
2. Washington: down 0.9%
3. Colorado: down 0.5%
4. California: down 0.2%

A handful of other states, including Oregon, North Carolina, Texas, Mississippi, and Arizona, saw prices grow by less than 1% for the year. Many of these are the same markets that saw explosive growth during the pandemic, and they're cooling off now.

Here’s NAHB’s map showing home price appreciation by state: 

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Cities Where Home Prices Are Rising (or Falling) the Fastest

City-level numbers show even bigger swings than the state data. Here are the ten cities with the biggest price gains over the past year:

1. Elgin, IL: up 7.7%
2. Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ: up 7.0%
3. Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT: up 6.6%
4. Charleston-North Charleston, SC: up 6.5%
5. El Paso, TX: up 6.5%
6. Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI: up 6.1%
7. Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL: up 5.9%
8. New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ: up 5.6%
9. Newark, NJ: up 5.5%
10. Greensboro-High Point, NC: up 5.3%

Some of these cities sit in states that didn't make the state-level top ten, which shows how much prices can vary within a single state.

These ten cities saw the biggest price drops over the same year:

1. Everett, WA: down 3.7%
2. San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX: down 3.0%
3. Bakersfield-Delano, CA: down 2.6%
4. Seattle-Bellevue-Kent, WA: down 2.4%
5. San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA: down 2.4%
6. Tucson, AZ: down 2.2%
7. Albuquerque, NM: down 1.7%
8. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: down 1.6%
9. Washington, DC-Maryland: down 1.0%
10. Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO: down 1.0%

A lot of these cities are in the West, in some of the same markets that saw the fastest growth a few years ago.

Some cities look very different depending on the time frame you use. San Francisco's prices dropped 9.1% compared to the previous few months, even though its year-over-year drop was a smaller 2.4%. Short-term numbers can jump around a lot, so the year-over-year comparison gives a better sense of what's happening.

Here’s the map showing city-level home price growth: 

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Why Some Markets Are Heating Up and Others Are Cooling Off

Two things are driving most of what we're seeing in this data.

#1. Affordability

Buying a home costs more than it used to, and that's pricing some buyers out or pushing them to wait. This is most visible in expensive markets like California and parts of the Pacific Northwest, where prices have already climbed a lot over the past several years.

#2: Housing supply

In a lot of Midwest and Northeast markets, there aren't enough homes for sale to meet buyer demand. When supply is tight, prices tend to hold steady or keep climbing.

This helps explain why states like Illinois and Wisconsin keep appearing near the top of the growth list. States like Oregon and Arizona are dealing with a different set of pressures. Prices climbed fast in these places during the pandemic, and affordability still hasn't caught up.

What This Means for Northeast Florida (and Fernandina Beach In Particular)

In the Jacksonville region, home prices have gone basically unchanged when comparing July 2025 to July 2026 (down 1.6% YOY). The peak was in June, 2026 at $419,900. Nassau County was a little more pronounced: a 5.8% decline in the same 2025-2026 comparison and ended at $470,000 for July 2026 data. Of course, "on island" compared to "over the bridge" compared to "the westside of the county" are all different.

If you're selling in Fernandina Beach, Amelia Island or Northeast Florida, knowing whether prices are climbing or slowing down here can help you set the right asking price and choose the best time to list. 

If you're buying, this same data can help you understand whether you're negotiating in a market that favors you or one where you'll need to move fast. The total number of sales are down from last year both for the region (10.7%) and the county (3%). 

No home price story looks exactly the same from one house to the next, even within the same city. Your street, your school district, and your type of home all play a role in your home's current value.

Information from: Broke Agent Media, Federal Housing Finance Agency Q2 Report, National Association of Home Builders reports