Half of U.S. Metros Rising, Half Falling. Here’s How Fernandina Beach Compares

If you’ve read the latest housing headlines, you’ve probably seen some conflicting takes.

And when you zoom out, it makes sense as to why: A new Zillow report found that, in half of the country’s largest metros, home values rose over the past year. In the other half, they fell. 

So today, we’re breaking down what’s happening nationally, and more importantly, how it compares to what we’re seeing here in Florida and (specifically) Nassau County. At the time I am writing this, it is late August - and we are still awaiting more national numbers prior to the Fed's next meeting mid-September. (Remember - the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates, but they do have an indirect effect.)

National Market Trends

At the national level, home values have barely moved, rising just 0.2% over the past year. 

• Home values rose in 25 major markets, mostly in the Midwest and Northeast. Cleveland (+4.7%) and Hartford (+4.5%) led the pack.

• Home values fell in 25 markets, especially in the South and West. Tampa (-6.2%), Austin (-6%), and Miami (-4.6%) saw the steepest declines.

Aside from home prices, here’s what’s happening across the country:

• Sellers cut prices on 27.4% of listings, the highest rate since tracking began in 2018.

• Homes are lingering on the market longer, with a median 60 days on market, the slowest July in over a decade.

• Mortgage costs are down slightly, about $19 per month compared to last year, but still nearly $1,000 higher than before the pandemic. 

That means affordability remains a challenge, even in markets where buyers have the upper hand.

What’s Happening in and around Fernandina Beach

National trends don’t always tell the full story. Here in Nassau County (including western portions of Hilliard, Bryceville & Callahan):

• Median home price: $675,473 (up 4% year over year)

• Days on market: Homes here are selling in 71 days on average, compared to the national 60-day median.

What does this mean for us? Buyers are still taking their time in purchasing properties, but values have not had the decline seen in other areas of Florida. Inventory. Total inventory seems to have peaked (thus far) in April/May, and have declined since. This is despite the gradual rise in expired listings in mid/late summer. 

What It Means for Buyers

Nationally, buyers are seeing more homes sit longer and more price cuts. In Nassau County, we are seeing some of the same. The spring mark was muted, and buyers are now seeing 3 months of a decline in new listings. Buyers have time and little competition but new options are declining. They are negotiating and winning to an extent.

If you're looking to buy, here’s my advice:

• Watch for price reductions. It’s a sign sellers are willing to negotiate.

• Get pre-approved so you’re ready to act when the right home hits the market. Get an idea of your budget and what you will need to be negotiated.

• Don’t assume headlines about “falling prices” apply everywhere. Check the local subareas, especially when looking at "on" vs "off" island and "HOA" vs "non-HOA" sales.

What It Means for Sellers

The national data is clear: Homes that are overpriced are sitting. Homes that are priced right are still selling. And be open to negotiating.

In Nassau County, it's not a secret: on island properties do sell faster (38 days compared to 53-56 days for the others). Western Fernandina and Yulee is the busiest market (averaging 59 sales/month compared to 40 for island & 12 for western cities)

If you’re thinking of selling, remember:

• Pricing competitively from the start is more important than ever. And condition matters: buyers are facing affordability issues and no longer have the added budget for renovations/repairs.

• Buyers are savvy, with plenty of data at their fingertips. They are also more selective than in recent years due to the cost of living that includes flood insurance costs and flood risks.

• Marketing is as important as ever! Make your home shine online with effective photographer/videography and staging both inside and out!

The Bottom Line

Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow, summed it up best: “Perhaps more than ever, whether it’s a good time to buy depends on where you live.”

The housing market is split nationally, but what really matters is what’s happening locally. If you’re thinking of buying or selling in Nassau County, the numbers show that strategy matters more than ever. 

Pricing, timing, and presentation will determine who wins in this market.